Saturday, September 29, 2007

Is the success of Linux and open software a hardware issue?

Or is the decreasing price of hardware about to kick Microsoft in the nuts?

This year there has been focus on possible opportunities for low-cost basic computers. There is the one-laptop-per-child (OLPC) project, the Chinese Longmeng (Dream Dragon), Intel's Classmate PC, the Nanobook, and now there is the ASUS EEE laptop with a supposed release date early November.

The concept is essentially the same – a simple, barebones system which almost anyone can afford. For example the ASUS EEE seems to be marketed towards people who just need a small light trashable WiFi capable laptop to take notes, email, use Facebook, look at photos, play some MP3s, skype with mates or browse the net. You know, the 95% of things that most people do on a computer. It's not for playing Bioshock or editing HD movies (you've probably got another computer if you're interested in that stuff). Perfect for students, as an inexpensive second machine or for anyone who only needs to do basic stuff (like your mum).

In previous years, if you were spending US$1500 and up on a laptop, the Microsoft tax you were paying didn't seem like such a big deal. XP or Vista was preinstalled, fairly convenient and face it you didn't really have any choice. But as the price of hardware for these small basic machines comes down, (think under US$250 by the end of next year) then software price starts to become a big issue. Why would you pay the price of your new laptop again just for the software, when all you want to do is really basic things?

Should Microsoft be worried? It seems there could be a blossoming consumer market for very low-cost computers next year, and with hardware prices so low, they almost all run a version of Linux. So after long years of crying in the wilderness and wailing and nashing of teeth there is finally a realistic chance Linux on the desktop is going to take off. Previously Microsoft could "hide" the cost of its operating system within the greater cost of the hardware. As hardware prices have come down they just can’t do that anymore.

If you just paid $250 for a shiny basic laptop, how much would you pay extra for the software to do basic things like surf the web? Not much I suspect. Another issue is that most of these basic systems save money by sporting very small harddrives (down to 2Gb for the ASUS EEE). The minimum system requirement for Vista Home Basic is a 20 Gb harddrive with 15 Gb available space (ouch). Plus you need a CD-ROM drive to install it...

As I see it, Microsoft has a couple of choices and none of them look good for shareholders.

1. They can lower the price of their software so it fits into the new low-cost computing market (how much is their dominant marketshare really worth to them?).

2. They can release lower capability lower-cost versions of existing software (think Vista Poverty edition).

3. They can concede the low-cost computing market to Linux and open software and concentrate on large consumer areas like gaming and multimedia (yeah right!).

4. They can pursue legal avenues to crimp the capability of open software on low-cost computers (because the whole point of a doomsday patent machine is lost, if you keep it a secret).

So it looks like next year is going to be quite interesting…


230 comments:

1 – 200 of 230   Newer›   Newest»
hoboprimate said...

Point 1 has happened for developing countries:Microsoft anounced a while ago Windows XP for $3, though I don't now if it's the Starter Edition.

My crystall ball says that, unless something dramatic happens, Microsoft will start focusing more on their other sucessfull business, like Xbox, and move into a new software model, maybe akin to Google gears.
There was a patent they filled some time ago, about the ability to buy pieces of functionalities of software through the web: The idea probably being, a simplle software is released free, then the small extra functionalities can be "bought" individually.

Still, I'm unsure how better is that in comparison with free to use web apps, and free to use, change and distribute GNU/Linux.

Anonymous said...

I'm an avid GNU/Linux enthusiast and won't begin to touch proprietary software, Microsoft, or anything similar. While I wish what you were saying were true, or becomes true I think we have some major problems to over come. Here is the problem with your logic. The manufacturers are reducing prices by cutting corners and these $250 PC and even more expensive ones are using chip sets and components that require proprietary drivers and firmware that offload processing to the CPU and storage to the main system memory. This is only becoming more common. Unless manufacturers start releasing free / open sourced drivers AND firmware you are going to have significant problems loading GNU/Linux onto these systems. If you get proprietary GNU/Linux drivers/firmware from the manufacturer you will still have a major problem as GNU/Linux is updated more frequently and manufacturer support is needed for each new release. Even the most GNU/Linux friendly (relatively) companies that have supported the community with non-free drivers fail to make long-term support possible. Now, it may not be an issue as Microsoft Windows has the same problem - except that with fewer OS updates from Microsoft it may mean longer support for your hardware than GNU/Linux. Of course if you resolve this problem by buying GNU/Linux friendly equipment (free/open source drivers/firmware) then GNU/Linux clearly wins over Microsoft Windows in long term support and cost. Not to say that GNU/Linux isn't cheaper for other reasons still yet... even with proprietary software. It is only that getting GNU/Linux working in the first place on non-free cheap hardware becomes almost impossible and unmanageable.

Open DND said...

Good article, and great points. Thumb drives are dropping in price, and I see it more and more as a trend to keep one on your kaychain or lanyard. Who cares if you laptop only has 2 Gigs on the drive when you have another 4 gigs in your pocket.

Maarten Kooiker said...

Good points you made, plus the fact that Vista requires really lots of memory and is very slow. I hear complaints all around!
Microsoft is pushing its customers towards UNIX!

Anonymous said...

I think Microsoft has already found ways to get it's own software to keep dominance. They know that the home user is the base for sucess. If they had found ways to pull off Palm own's OS from Palm's Devices, and IBM's OS2 out of IBM's offerings, they would surely found a way to make some kind of Windows run on that notebooks. I use Linux, and just linux, ay home and work, and while it's great, it has a lot of shortcomings on desktop. Application startup times, for example. ELF library format is simply slower at link time due to it's flexible design. X server is another issue. You can run a modern Windows XP with MS Office and Firefox on a 128mb ram machine. On the same setup KDE is slower, and XFCE4 has much less features .
And all this... if you don't take into that MS Piracy is a common practice. For the average user, Windows is almost free.

Anonymous said...

An overview of the price drop in hardware and how it impacts Windows:


http://www.cyber.com.au/press/the_cost_of_software_monopoly.pdf

hoboprimate said...

Replying to the post before last:
My brother has fitted a local cyber-cafe made entirely of old used Pentiums (the slowest being a 300 Mhz) with Xubuntu. It has Skype, browsing and instant messanging, fitting very well the needs of its customers. So I think that the idea of "one size fits all" about software and Operating systems isn't true anymore, or even desirable.
Philosophy questions asside (I too am a free sotware enthusiast, and think that society is better with free software solutions), time will tell who can get better at this: Centralized development like Apple and Microsoft does, or anarchic no-strings-attached distributed development. I believe the later will take over.
But again, this is pure futurology because i don't have any special knowledge that you don't.
Replying to the comment more above about free firmware, etc. Indeed, a trend is growing where the firmware is taking a more important role. My belief is that, unless DRM systems come into play, it can be handled (i.e., if necessary, be replaced with a free one. Openfirmware and Linux Bios are two pieces of software getting well matured, and in use by OLPC's XOs).
I also agree that they should be opened, but it will take a while. And projects like Open moko (a linux-base completey open mobile phone), OLPCs laptops, and other devices with more free "software" will make other corporations a reason to re-think their strategy.
The latest firmware update for the Iphone that Apple released made 3rd-party programs non-working, which pissed a lot an important part of its userbase, the more savy users. These might just flock into those devices where that doesn't happen.

Anonymous said...

Why can't Microsoft just make a agreement/license/whateverBS that allows users to have Vista on low-end laptops and computers? Not that it'd actually RUN well on them, but they could do it. Microsoft and other companies give certain companies or institutions HUGE so-called "discounts" on their software. The software is free in that they can make as many copies as they want, so they have nothing to lose. Either they sell it to some company for a high price, or they lose that money, so they choose to get SOME money for selling it to them at a lower price. Not only do they ensure they retain a customer this way, and get *some* money for their software, but they also keep a stranglehold on that market. If deals like this were actually outlawed like they should be in the U.S., this couldn't happen, but it isn't, so it will. Yes, you SHOULD be able to buy product A at price B, always, period, and anyone should be able to do it, but that's not how it works at all anymore. Instead, if you bought product A at price B, you'd go bankrupt. You HAVE to kiss their ass for a "special discount" or else you won't be able to afford it, and in order to do so you have to sign an agreement that states that you won't allow other competition for their products, or you commit to buying their products for X years. What all this means is that this article is all a great idea, I don't think it can happen. Microsoft will offer companies extremely good discounts on their low-end computers. Just like they did with China, as another reader pointed out. The only way Linux will take off is if the government steps in to outlaw foul business practices like this, or Linux demand goes up so much that even if Microsoft gave Windows away for free, users would still want to choose Linux. I'm afraid that's what it may take, until Microsoft goes bankrupt.

MattBD said...

You've raised some very good points in this post which I agree with.
But there's one thing I'd add. I think web-based applications are likely to really take off in the next few years - things like Googlemail and Google Docs are already popular. As more and more people use several different computers (say, one at work and one at home, maybe one at their parents house), they want to be able to access the same e-mail or documents from any computer, and so these kinds of applications have a significant advantage over desktop applications like Outlook or MS Office. As these kind of things aren't reliant on any specific OS and only need a compatible browser (which they have, thanks to the cross-platform success of Firefox), then not being able to get a specific application will become less and less of an issue. In fact, because of it's smaller size and superior performance, Linux will be able to perform better on the same computer using the same applications.
While I'd love Linux to succeed on the basis of its own applications (being an avid Kubuntu user), I think that web-based applications will probably be what finally kills off the Microsoft monopoly.

Anonymous said...

A major reason for Windows dominance on the desktop is that is has come pre-installed on almost every PC for the past 15 years. Buyers had no choice but to get Windows with their PCs. The success of low-cost laptops will mean buyers will have a choice finally. Not evryone will rush out and get one but there should be a significant market for these devices within schools and for people looking for a simple, reliable, virus-free OS with the basic software requirements to fit their needs. The UMPC market is also a market where Linux can shine when the need for lower prices and increased reliability kick in. In any case users will not have to install Linux and worry about driver compatibility because it will come pre-installed and with drivers that work for the components the low-cost laptop is built with. Manufacturers of low-cost laptops should work to make their version of Linux as compatible as possible so that manufacturers of peripheral components will provide Linux driver compatibility for this class of PCs, same as manufacturers provide Mac OS X compatibility.

Mike said...

If someone would build an OS that does well what most people want to do--connect.

Load free apps like Picasa and AbiWord, with a decent browser and mail client, that boots quick and doesn't crash...Would Sell a Lot of Computers.

That's how Apple sold Macs to educators.

I know there's Damn Small Linux and even micro-computers running off pen drives and such, but when is the Linux community going to address the desktop?

Simple GUI, and easy to configure for internet. How hard is that?

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